Thursday, September 08, 2005

Could we ever miss Greenspan?

For those who used to read my more economically specific musings the question might seem absurd...miss him!...he can't go fast enough! Perhaps and perhaps not. Sometimes I wonder, given all the hubbub over who gets to pick the next Supreme Court Justice, why there seems to be so much less concern over who gets to pick the next Fed Chairman. Stacking the Fed seems to me at least as dangerous as stacking the Supreme Court. Worried about the definition of marriage or abortion rights?, to pick 2 contentious issues begging for adjudication, consider what a 10% Fed Funds rate might mean given the new more difficult bankruptcy qualifications, or a quick 100 basis point drop to "shore up" flagging optimism in the economic health of the nation.

What was it Mayer Rothschild was reported to have said? Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes its laws. While I believe Greenspan was quite sensitive to the political winds in Washington, and obviously Wall St. I don't think of him as a total tool, a qualification that may or may not apply to the next Fed Chairman At a minimum, Greenspan was keenly aware that sharp and sudden moves might not be a good idea, just the kind of wisdom a newbie probably has to learn by experience-by touching the stove, something the state seems to be doing a lot of these days. Ivory Tower employment only Ben Bernanke might find his rise to power quite exhilerating, a feeling which can lead to impaired judgement.

Paul Kasriel's always thought provoking economic commentary touches on a very key point, how will the Fed react to the shock of Katrina? Contemplation of this issue is complicated by a huge unknown, who will be the next Fed Chair? The delicate balancing act of international finance, already on a razor's edge with war and oil price shocks just got a lot more complex and the current Fed Chairman has but a few months left. Who knows, the financial manifestation of Katrina's storm surge may not yet have materialized. Good thing I got my golden bowling ball!

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